Today’s Payroll Report – A Game ChangerBy Bob Andres | Oct 02, 2015
I have been arguing that there was “no economic justification for a Fed rate hike. Today’s payroll report goes a long way in confirming my rationale. I would be shocked if the Fed moved this year. Payrolls increased by 142,000 approximately 60,000 below forecast at the same time the August report was revised down from 173,000 to 136,000.
Making matters worse the household survey fell by 236,000. The unemployment number would have risen if not for the 350,000 contraction in the labor force. The participation rate declined to a 40-year low of 62.4%.
Working against inflationary expectations average hourly earning were flat for the month.
This report will add to uncertainty and volatility. You will see the 10-year treasury below 2.0% today.