Poor Retail Sales = Even lower Q3 GDP – No Economic Justification for a Fed MoveBy Bob Andres | Oct 19, 2015
Retail sales increased by 0.1% m/m in September. The data was even weaker as one gets into the belly of the report. When autos, building materials and gasoline (the control group) are subtracted the number goes negative by 0.1%. Making things more difficult both July and August numbers were revised downward.
The Trifecta of a poor jobs report, combined with an abysmal trade report anchored be very weak retail sales data suggests Q3 GDP will come in lower than 2.0%. Weak economic growth and zero inflationary pressures are not the environment for a nervous Fed to raise rates.